Table 2 Summary and characteristics of 20 articles assessing fertility or contraception following natural hazard disasters 1989–2012
From: Fertility and contraception among women of reproductive age following a disaster: a scoping review
First author (year) | Study design and time period assessed | Disaster location, type and date | Sample | Exposure measure(s) | Outcome(s) assessed | Key findings | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bahmanjanbeh (2016) | Cohort Pre-disaster: 1 year before, 2011 Post-disaster: 1 year after, 2013 | Earthquakes August 12, 2012 East Azarbaijan, Iran | All married women 15-49-years-old living in earthquake affected area n = 44,265 | 6.3 and 6.4-magnitude, Richter scale—All births after earthquake were considered exposed | Fertility Contraception access | Birth Rate (per 1000 population/ year) 1 year before: 18.5 Year of disaster: 18.3 1 year after: 17.8 Marriage Fertility Rate 1 year before: 111.7 Year of disaster: 109.1 1 year after: 103.2 Contraceptive Coverage (%) 1 year before: 66.9 Year of disaster: 66.8 1 year after: 64.9 | |
Behrman (2016) | Cohort Pre-disaster: 5 years before, 2005 Post-disaster: 2 years after, 2012 | Earthquake January 12, 2010 Haiti | Population survey of women 15–49-years-old Pre-disaster: n = 10,757 Post-disaster: n = 14,287 | 4.61–7.65, Mercalli score—Period after earthquake considered exposed Compared department-level destruction by Mercalli score | Contraception use and access | Contraception Use Difference-in-Differences (DID) suggests there is no significant effect on the probability of using a modern contraception method Contraception Access Significant** increase in an unmet need for contraception. | |
Cohan (2002) | Longitudinal administrative 1975–1997 | Hurricane September 22, 1989 South Carolina, US | Population vital statistics for state and counties | Category 4 Hurricane—Severity determined by federal disaster declaration, and seven most severely affected counties were first reported disaster declarations. Compared to 22 counties in South Carolina without federal disaster declaration | Fertility | Birth Rate (per 100,000 population/year) 1 year after: Net increase of 41 In the year following the hurricane, counties with a federal disaster declaration had a significant* increase in birth rate compared to counties in the state that were not declared disaster areas. | |
Davis (2017) | Cohort Pre-disaster: April–September 1998 Post-disaster: 2 years after, August 1999–July 2001, and 5 to 7 years after, November 2003–October 2005 | Hurricane October 28, 1998 Nicaragua | Women 15–49-years-old residing in zones where precipitation occurred from hurricane Pre-disaster: n = 5424 Post-disaster: August 1999–July 2001 n = 5353 November 2003–October 2005 n = 8734 | Category 5 Hurricane—Compared mean rainfall level per municipality during the 10-day storm period of the hurricane | Fertility | Total Fertility Rate All women 1998: 3.01 2001: 2.81 2005: 2.75 Women in zones with below median precipitation 1998: 3.41 2001: 3.27 2005: 3.02 Women in zones with above median precipitation 1998: 2.62 2001: 2.36 2005: 2.36 | |
Djafri (2015) | Mixed methods Population statistics: 2007–2011 Health facility-based review: conducted November 2010–May 2011 | Earthquake September 20, 2009 Padang, Indonesia | Population statistics of Padang City Women 15–49-years-old receiving service at local health center at least twice before earthquake | 7.6-magnitude, Richter scale—Period after earthquake considered exposed | Fertility Contraception use and access | Birth Rate (per 1000 population/ year) 2007: 17.0 2008: 18.3 2009: 18.8 2010: 19.8 2011: 19.6 Contraceptive Use—No change Contraceptive Access—Perceived ability to access contraception declined by 20% for 1–3 months after | |
Evans (2009) | Longitudinal administrative 1996–2002 | Hurricanes Gulf Coast Region, US | Population vital statistics for states and counties | Storm advisories | Fertility | Number of births—Change in monthly county births compared to prior year, same month Tropical storm watch: 3.2% decrease 10 months after**, 2.6% increase 11 months after* Tropical storm warning: Constant Hurricane watch: 2.6% increase 10 months after**, 3.7% increase 11 months after**, 0.9% increase 3 years after* Hurricane warning: 2.2% decrease 9 months after**, 2.6% decrease 10 months after**, 0.7% decrease 3 years after* | |
Grabich (2015) | Cohort Pre-disaster: August 14, 2003–October 31, 2003 Post-disaster: 2004 | Hurricanes August 13, 2004 and September 21, 2004 Florida, US | Conceptions resulting in live birth among Florida female residents 15–45-years-old n = 92,398 | Wind severity in county (≥ 74 mph), and county distance from storm path (< 60 km) | Fertility | Birth Rate (per 1000 population) DID—No association observed between hurricane exposure and birth rate GLM—Risk difference of 2.2 births per 1000 population (95% CI: 1.5, 3.0) when wind speeds are ≥ 74 mph compared to < 74 mph. Risk difference of 2.8 births per 1000 population (95% CI: 1.9, 3.7) in storm path compared to those outside 60 km buffer of storm path | |
Grabich (2017) | Cohort January 2003–October 2004 | Hurricanes August 13, 2004; September 5, 21, and 25, 2004 Florida, US | Conceptions resulting in live birth among Florida female residents 15-45-years-old n = 138,005 | County exposure to hurricane weather conditions, and by wind strength (≥ 39 mph, ≥ 79 mph) | Fertility | Birth Rate (per 1000 population)—Using DID estimates, no association was observed between birth rates and hurricane exposure. 2003: 4.2 2004: 3.8 | |
Hamamatsu (2014) | Cohort January 1997–2011 Post-disaster: December 2011–June 2012 | Earthquake March 11, 2011 Tohoku, Japan | Births in each prefecture | 9.0 magnitude—Seismic activity intensity measured on the Japan Meteorological Agency scale as upper 5 or more in Kanto and Tohoku regions, 13 prefectures Compared to all 47 prefectures of Japan and 34 prefectures with score less than ‘upper 5’ on Japan Meteorological Agency seismic activity intensity scale | Fertility | Number of births Births in all of Japan were significantly* lower than expected for 4 of 7 post-disaster months studied (Dec 2011, Jan 2012, Apr 2012, and Jun 2012). Expected estimates were developed from a quadratic regression equation. In the disaster affected area, births were significantly lower than expected 5 out of 7 months (Dec 2011, Jan 2012, Mar–Apr 2012, Jun 2012), and in the non-disaster stricken areas, only 2 of 7 months had fewer births than expected (Apr 2012 and Jun 2012). | |
Hamilton (2009) | Longitudinal administrative Pre-disaster: August 29, 2004–August 28, 2005 Post-disaster: August 29, 2005–August 28, 2006 | Hurricane August 29, 2005 Gulf Coast Region, US | Births to residents of Federal Emergency Management Agency-designated disaster counties of Alabama, Louisiana, and Mississippi | 91 counties with federal disaster declarations and 14 selected counties with disaster declarations within 100-mile radius of the hurricane path | Fertility | Number of births 1 year after: In 14 selected counties hardest hit 19% decline overall; 30% decrease in Louisiana, 13% decrease in Mississippi, and 6% increase in Alabama. In 91 counties studied 4% decline overall with a significant* decline in 6 counties and significant* increase in 7 counties: 12% decrease in Louisiana, 4% increase in Alabama, and 3% increase in Mississippi. | |
Hapsari (2009) | Cohort, survey Before disaster and within 1 year of disaster | Earthquake May 27, 2006 Yogyakarta Province, Indonesia | Married (before disaster) women 21–49-years-old from Bantul District of Yogyakarta Province n = 450 | 6.2-magnitude, Richter scale—Period after earthquake considered exposed | Contraception use and access | Contraception Use—3% stopped using contraception after disaster while, 12.5% changed contraceptive method after disaster. Contraception Access—11% of pre-disaster users had difficult time accessing services after the disaster. | |
Kinoshita (2016) | Mixed methods Pre-disaster: 2002–2003 Post-disaster: 2005–2006 | Tsunami December 26, 2004 Aceh Province, Indonesia | Women 15-19-years-old (born 1985–1991) from Aceh Province n = 252 | 5 areas of province where > 10% of the population was displaced for 8 or more months after the tsunami | Fertility | Fertility Rate (per 1000 women 15–19) 2 years before: 3.5% 2 years after: 4.1% | |
Kurita (2019) | Longitudinal administrative January 1, 2007–December 31, 2017 | Earthquake March 11, 2011 Fukushima, Japan | Births registered in Fukushima per month divided by city population at beginning of month | All births after earthquake were considered exposed | Fertility | Birth Rate (per 100,000 population per month) Pre-disaster: 69.8 0–2 years post-disaster: 59.5 3–7 years post-disaster: 62.9 In the two years following the disaster, birth rates were significantly* lower than expected based on estimates from Poisson regression models. More than 2 years after the disaster, the birth rate returned to expected values. | |
Nandi (2018) | Longitudinal administrative Pre-disaster: 1996–2000 Post-disaster: 2002–2006 | Earthquake January 26, 2001 Gujarat, India | Births occurring in 1996–2000 and 2002–2006 in Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan | 7.7-magnitude, moment magnitude scale—Post-disaster births in Gujarat Compared to post-disaster births in Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan | Fertility | Births—9.5% increase** in rate of childbirth among women in exposed region | |
Nobles (2015) | Cohort Pre-disaster: 10 months before Post-disaster: up to 5 years after | Tsunami December 26, 2004 Aceh Province, Indonesia | Women 15–49-years-old living in Aceh Province n = 6363 | Births after tsunami in 92 communities with some mortality; high (≥ 30% of residents died) or low tsunami mortality Compared to 191 communities that experienced no tsunami related mortality, in the same district as communities experiencing tsunami related mortality | Fertility | Total Fertility Rate 4 years after: Net increase of 0.7* comparing communities with some mortality to no mortality 0.5 birth per woman higher than expected in areas of high mortality | |
Oyarzo (2012) | Cohort Pre-disaster: January 1–December 31, 2009 Post-disaster: March 1–December 31, 2010 | Earthquake February 27, 2010 Chillan, Chile | Women delivering at Herminda Martin Clinical Hospital Pre-disaster: n = 3609 Post-disaster: n = 2553 | 8.8-magnitude, moment magnitude scale—All births after earthquake were considered exposed | Fertility Contraception access | Birth Rate—Compared to previous year, 9% reduction Contraceptive Access—No change | |
Scapini (2021) | Longitudinal administrative 2002–2016 Pre-disaster: 2002-2009 Post-disaster: 2010–2016 | Earthquake February 27, 2010 Chile | 5182 registrations from 15 regionsa | 8.8-magnitude, Richter Scale 6 affected regions with modified Mercalli intensity scale level of severe or higher | Fertility | Birth Rate (per 1000 inhabitants) Pre-disaster (2004–2009): 13.85 Post-disaster (2010–2015): 12.87 Parallel trends assumption between affected and unaffected regions met. DID—Affected regions had non-significant increase in birthrate compared to unaffected regions in post-disaster period. Triple-Difference Modeling—Birth rate showed downward trend in the post-disaster period for affected and unaffected regions. Compared to the unaffected regions in the post-disaster period, the birth rate in affected regions increased* by 0.385. | |
Seltzer (2017) | Longitudinal administrative 2000–2010 Pre-disaster: 2000–2004 Post-disaster: 2006–2010 | Hurricane August 29, 2005 Louisiana, US | Births reported in vital statistics in New Orleans, Louisiana | Category 3 Hurricane—All births after hurricane in Orleans county and New Orleans MSA Compared to MSAs with similar population size to New Orleans and southern, costal MSAs that were not affected by hurricane | Fertility | Total Fertility Rate Asian—Constant Black—4% decrease* Hispanic—55% increase** White—5% increase* Change in TFR in post-disaster period compared to expected value based on comparable MSAs | |
Tan (2009) | Cohort Pre-disaster: May 12, 2007–May 11, 2008 Post-disaster: May 12, 2008 - May 11, 2009 | Earthquake May 12, 2008 Wenchaun, China | Births occurring at local hospitals in Du Jiang Yan and Peng Zhou Pre-disaster: n = 6638 Post-disaster: n = 6365 | 8.0-magnitude, Richter Scale—All births after earthquake were considered exposed | Fertility | Birth Rate—Constant (i.e., not a significant decrease) 4.3% decrease | |
Tong (2011) | Longitudinal administrative Pre-disaster: 1994–1996 Post-disaster: 1997–2000 | Flood April 1997 North Dakota, US | Births among residents giving birth in North Dakota | All births after flood were considered exposed, and six counties directly affected by flood considered most severely exposed | Fertility | Birth Rate (per 1000 population) Entire state Pre-disaster: 13.1 Post-disaster: 12.2 Most severe counties Pre-disaster: 13.9 Post-disaster: 13.0 Fertility Rate (per 1000 women 15–44) Entire state Pre-disaster: 65.3 Post-disaster: 64.0 | |